Understanding digit contract payouts
Last updated 10 September 2026
A higher chance of winning does not necessarily mean a better return. Compare the chance of winning with the price and total payout. A contract that wins often can still lose money over repeated trades.
The examples below use the price table recorded in our 9 September 2026 review. They are illustrations, not live or executable quotes. Use the current quote for your account, contract, duration and stake before making a decision.
Compare digit contracts
Structural chance assumes the ten settlement digits are equally likely. It is not a prediction from the scanner. Break-even is the win rate needed to cover the purchase price. Expected return uses that structural chance and the example payout; it is not a fee or a guaranteed result.
| Contract | Structural chance | Total payout | Break-even | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1, Under 8 | 80% | $1.23 | 81.3% | −1.60% |
| Over 0, Under 9, Differs 0-9 (all ten barriers) | 90% | $1.09 | 91.7% | −1.90% |
| Over 2, Under 7 | 70% | $1.40 | 71.4% | −2.00% |
| Over 3, Under 6 | 60% | $1.63 | 61.3% | −2.20% |
| Over 4, Under 5, Even, Odd | 50% | $1.95 | 51.3% | −2.50% |
| Over 5, Under 4 | 40% | $2.43 | 41.2% | −2.80% |
| Over 6, Under 3 | 30% | $3.21 | 31.2% | −3.70% |
| Over 7, Under 2 | 20% | $4.72 | 21.2% | −5.60% |
| Over 8, Under 1, Matches 0-9 (all ten barriers) | 10% | $8.93 | 11.2% | −10.70% |
Review reference: Volatility 100 (1s) Index, 1 tick, $1, USD. Total payout includes the returned purchase price on a win. Prices and availability can differ; this table does not establish current prices across markets or accounts.
Read the contract, not just its name
Differs has nine winning digits. Matches has one. Under the equal-digit assumption, their structural chances are 90% and 10%, regardless of the selected digit.
Over and Under use strict comparisons. Over 8 wins only on 9; Under 1 wins only on 0. Over 1 wins on 2 through 9, not on 1 itself.
Compare like-for-like quotes. Use the same contract, barrier, duration, purchase price and currency when comparing markets. An old quote or an unavailable payout is not a valid price comparison.
Check the calculation
Expected return (%) is (p × total payout / purchase price − 1) × 100, where p is the assumed probability expressed as a decimal. Break-even (%) is purchase price / total payout × 100.
For example, a $1 contract with an assumed 90% chance and a $1.09 total payout has an expected return of −1.9%. A win returns $0.09 profit, while a loss costs the full $1.
Deriv returns purchase price and payout in its proposal response. These values can be absent, so missing prices must not be treated as zero. Public example quotes are not substitutes for your account's quote. See how VolaPilot earns.
Understand the limits
All these example payouts have negative expected returns under the equal-digit assumption. Changing the contract changes its structural chance and payout, but does not demonstrate a predictive advantage. Short sessions can differ substantially from any long-run average.
You can lose the entire stake. This guide is educational, not a recommendation to trade. Read the full risk notice before connecting an account.
How VolaPilot uses this
The scanner ranks contract choices using their structural chances. Current price comparisons are used only when the compared quotes are fresh and compatible. It does not continuously quote every contract, and a rank is not a guaranteed win rate. You can explore the workspace in Demo with virtual funds.